2nd Annual Hops and Thoughts 2023 NFL Mock Draft

Football on a Field with Black Hops and Thoughts 2023 NFL Mock Draft Text

The NFL Draft is here!

It is Christmas for football fans. A long-awaited night when we finally get to see what gifts the football deities will bestow upon our favorite franchises. NFL pundits and prognosticators have been at it for months – dissecting college football players, watching the game tape, examining the analytics with a virtual magnifying glass, exploring team needs, discussing potential trades and creating their own mock drafts.

Add me to the list – albeit on a less professional, skilled or intelligent level. I F*&%$#@ LOVE the NFL DRAFT. I am a simple fan that some may call simple-minded, who simply loves the strategy, analytics and future that the NFL Draft represents. I love to see the dreams of college football players realized as they get the call from their brand-new team and I love to see how championship rosters are built by each franchise.

Pregame Notes for the 2023 NFL Draft

Before I get to my picks, here are a few thoughts and notes that I have as I dive into this predictive draft where I attempt to predict the future of the 2023 NFL Draft.

  • Can I Get ONE Pick Right? – The First-Ever Hops and Thoughts Mock Draft was an exercise in futility in which I got ZERO picks right. A fact that my fellow draft-crazed friends love to remind me about (thanks Tom and Dutchy for keeping me grounded). This draft is anything but a sure thing, but there are a few picks that seem a little more certain than others, at least in terms of the position drafted. C’mon Bryce Young!
  • Does This Draft Class Suck? – There have been more than a few draft pundits who have proclaimed that this draft class is pretty terrible, that it lacks any real blue-chip talent with only about 10 – 15 first round grades on most boards. I think that this class will produce a lot of good – maybe not great – players that will be in the NFL for years.
  • Are Any of the QBs Good? – Quarterbacks are always the headline of the NFL Draft and this year has some interesting options. Opinions seem to continue to shift on the QBs in this draft class and all seem to have question marks – Bryce Young is a midget in 33 states, Will Levis has a cannon to go with trash production, C.J. Stroud may not be the brightest bulb in the box and Anthony Richardson has godlike attributes that have not shown up on the field.
  • How Many Trades Will We See? – With what feels like a lack of elite talent in this draft class, I think that most teams will want to trade back and get more draft picks, more bites at the apple. Multiple teams – Houston, Detroit, Philadelphia and Seattle – have multiple first round picks to make waves and teams like Green Bay with multiple second-round picks could trade back into the first round.
  • How Many TEs Will Be Drafted in the First Round? – Despite a lack of high-end talent in this draft class, the 2023 Tight End Class has been heralded as generational with a few absolute freakshow athletes. With a lackluster WR class this year, will teams supplement passing attacks with TEs instead? Who will be the next Travis Kelce?
  • Who Will Be the Oddball Pick? – As my Marine Corps Drill Instructors were fond of saying – there is always one (fuck up) – and the only question is who. There is always an oddball pick in the first round, see Cole Strange in the 2022 NFL Draft, and I cannot wait to see who it is this year.

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1. Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young – Alabama – QB

The Carolina Panthers paid a king’s ransom to move from #9 to #1 in this draft class and QB is the target (according to most). Bryce Young – despite his tiny frame – has all the tools, has shredded SEC defenses for years and is the Las Vegas betting favorite.

2. Houston Texans – Will Anderson Jr. – Alabama – Edge

Curveball! Houston needs a QB – sorry Davis Mills – but draft rumors have it that they are not in love with anyone aside from Bryce Young at #2. Will Anderson is an elite talent in this class with double digit sacks at Alabama each of the past two years and he fits a position of need for the Texans. I think they capitalize on multiple first-round picks and address QB later in the draft.

3. TRADE – Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson – Florida – QB

Indianapolis – Pick #4 and Pick #35 → Arizona – Pick #3

Indianapolis needs a QB – but they are not the only ones. Here Indianapolis trades up to have their pick of the rest of the QBs on the draft board. Anthony Richardson is maybe the most athletic prospect in NFL Draft history and can run the ball as a QB. His skillset may be the perfect match for new head coach Shane Steichen, whose offense in Philadelphia was built around a similar player in Jalen Hurts.

4.  TRADE – Arizona Cardinals – Tyree Wilson – Texas Tech – Edge

Arizona – Pick #3 → Indianapolis – Pick #4 and Pick #35 

The Arizona Cardinals lost J.J. Watt and more this offseason and need pass rush help in the worst way. Tyree Wilson did not workout due to injury, but is a long, lean and athletic edge rusher that registered eight sacks and 32 hurries last year and expects to take his game to the next level in the NFL.

5. Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter – Georgia – DT

Jalen Carter is considered by many to be the best player in this draft class – but comes with some off-field baggage. With that said, the Seattle Seahawks ranked 30th in run defense last season and Pete Carroll has had success with troubled players in the past. Carter could take this defense to the next level with his massive size and skillset and is the betting favorite at #5.

6. TRADE – Houston Texans – Will Levis – Kentucky – QB

Houston – Pick #12, Pick #73 and 2024 First (CLE) → Detroit – #6

Houston has the draft ammunition to move up with two first-round picks this year and next year thanks to Cleveland’s dumbass moves. This trade puts them ahead of QB-needy teams like Las Vegas, Atlanta and Tennessee and allows them to pick up a talented Will Levis. Rumors have it that Levis may have been their favorite all along. I guess we will find out.

7. Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Gonzalez – Oregon – CB

The Raiders have always loved athletic freaks and Christian Gonzalez fits the bill and plays a position of need (which is all of them if we are being honest). I think the ideal scenario would be Jalen Carter here, but that ship has sailed. Gonzalez ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine at 6’ 1” and had four interceptions with three TDs last year. He has the potential to anchor this secondary.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson – Texas – RB 

Bijan Robinson may be a generational talent at RB – but teams don’t value first-round RBs as much in the modern era. Recent news and rumors point to Atlanta being the landing spot for Bijan Robinson and we know that Arthur Smith loves to run the rock. Oft-injured Cordarrelle Patterson is the incumbent and is more of a change of pace and Tyler Allgeier is serviceable. Robinson is an instant upgrade.

9. Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jr. – Ohio State – OT

The Chicago Bears need to protect Justin Fields and give him more time to throw to his new best friend DJ Moore. The offensive line needs an upgrade and Paris Johnson Jr. might be the best tackle prospect in the draft – allowing just two sacks in the past two seasons with an 83.0 grade by Pro Football Focus (PFF).

10. Philadelphia Eagles – Lukas Van Ness – Iowa – Edge

Lukas Van Ness hails from the land of corn and Busch Light. He is a versatile and extremely athletic defender – nicknamed Hercules by teammates – who can play inside or outside on the defensive line. With aging pass rushers on the team, the Eagles use one of two first-round picks to get a versatile impact player.

11. Tennessee Titans – C.J. Stroud – Ohio State – QB

The Titans have been shopping veteran QB Ryan Tannehill – but with Malik Willis not getting on the field last year, we can expect Tennessee to look for a quarterback again this year. There have been rumors that the Tennessee Titans love C.J. Stroud, who put on a display against an elite Georgia defense in the College Football Playoff Semi-Final, and in this mock draft he falls right into their laps.

12. TRADE – Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon – Illinois – CB

Detroit – Pick #6 → Houston – Pick #12, Pick #74 and 2024 First (CLE)

I think this is Detroit’s guy and they are happy to get a lockdown corner here. Detroit has a defense that continues to improve, yet ranked #30 in pass defense. Devon Witherspoon received a 92.0 grade by PFF metrics last year and allowed a passer rating of 25.3 to opposing quarterbacks. Even with free agency additions at CB, Witherspoon is a great player in an important spot.

13. Green Bay Packers – Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Ohio State – WR

F#%$ IT! I am gonna do it. I love Jaxon Smith-Njigba and I will speak this pick into existence. The Packers have not drafted a pass catcher in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002 in  favor of defensive players and offensive tackles in the first round. I think this could be the year. GM Brian Gutekunst loves to draft athletes and Jaxon Smith-Njigba had elite numbers in his agility drills – the perfect fit for the slot role. My heart has gone with Smith-Njigba in this draft – but my gut says I am likely wrong and they will probably target an edge rusher like Myles Murphy or offensive tackle Broderick Jones here.

14. New England Patriots – Joey Porter Jr. – Penn State – CB

A tough, aggressive cornerback with 4.4 speed, Joey Porter Jr. may be the piece that this Bill Belichik defense is missing. The Penn State CB is built for man coverage with a long frame and speed to match. He allowed just 143 yards to opposing wide receivers this past season and will look to continue the tradition of pro bowl cornerbacks in New England.

15. New York Jets – Broderick Jones – Georgia – OT

The New York Jets look to protect their new franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers with one of the top offensive tackles in the draft. Broderick Jones is an athletic monster who earned an 84.1 pass-blocking grade from PFF this past season and allowed zero sacks and just seven hurries in 15 games.

16.  Washington Commanders – Deonte Banks – Maryland – CB

Deonte Banks ran a blazing-fast 4.35 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine this year and may be a lockdown corner in the NFL. A solid guy with off-the-chart numbers, Banks can play on the outside or the inside and has the ability to mirror and bully receivers down the field. This pick fills a massive need for the Washington Commanders.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Peter Skoronski – Northwestern – OT

The fall stops here for Peter Skoronski. Skoronski is considered by many to be the best offensive tackle prospect in the class, but he has tiny T-Rex arms that I think may scare some front offices. With that said, he is a versatile offensive lineman that can likely play anywhere and will be a significant upgrade on a lackluster offensive line.

18. Detroit Lions – Brian Branch – Alabama – Safety

Detroit continues to upgrade an ailing pass defense with the addition of Safety Brian Branch from Alabama. Branch did not test incredibly well, but his production in the SEC as part of a top-tier defense leaves little doubt as to what he can do on the field. The Alabama product had an 89.5 PFF grade last year with a role that put him in the slot and in the box.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Myles Murphy – Clemson – Edge

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a solid defense last season – even with the loss of sack master Shaq Barret in Week 8. With that loss, the team struggled to produce pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Myles Murphy is a long, athletic option on the edge with impressive grades across the board and the ability to improve.

20. Seattle Seahawks – Jordan Addison – USC – WR

The Seattle Seahawks have created an impressive offense that nearly made the playoffs last season with the re-invigorated Geno Smith, the beast DK Metcalf and newcomer Kenneth Walker III. Even so – veteran Tyler Lockett is not getting younger and the front office continues to add weapons with the addition of Jordan Addison, whose precision route running creates mismatches.

21. Los Angeles Chargers – Quentin Johnston – TCU – WR

Injuries plagued the Los Angeles Chargers WR corps last season and Justin Herbert would not hate a few extra weapons. Quentin Johnston is a big-bodied behemoth at WR who can run. Johnston gives this offense a fast, downfield threat that it does not have with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the field.

22. Baltimore Ravens – Darnell Wright – Tennessee – OT

Cornerback may be more of a need for the Baltimore Ravens at this point, but Darnell Wright is arguably the best offensive tackle in the draft class and can be an instant upgrade on that offensive front. Wright dominated Will Anderson Jr. when the Vols played Alabama and can fit at guard or tackle in the right offense and will provide incredible power in the run game.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Emmanuel Forbes – Mississippi State – CB

The Minnesota Vikings have a need at CB with the loss of Patrick Peterson and Emmanuel Forbes may be the best available at this point in the draft. Forbes has incredible ball skills, the speed to mirror WRs and is scheme versatile. The main drawback is that he weighs in at just 165 pounds and may struggle to play press-man at the next level.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Cam Smith – South Carolina – CB

Jacksonville ranked 27th in pass defense last season and could use some reinforcements in the defensive backfield. Cam Smith is able to play both inside and outside and has 70 passes defended in the past two years. Add elite testing numbers and athleticism to the equation and Cam Smith is a welcome addition to the Jaguars defense.

25. New York Giants – Zay Flowers – Boston College – WR

Daniel Jones took his team to the playoffs despite a mediocre (at best) supporting cast on the field. Zay Flowers is a speedy slot receiver who ran a 4.42 at the combine and had 1,077 receiving yards and 12 TDs last season. Despite his small size, Zay Flowers gives Daniel Jones a great pass catching option to complement Darren Waller.

26. Dallas Cowboys – Michael Mayer – Notre Dame – TE

Michael Mayer is a well-rounded TE prospect who can run, catch and block. He has drawn comparisons to Cowboys legend Jason Witten and he may be the perfect addition to this offense, improving the run game and giving Dak Prescott an underneath target. This pick seems almost too perfect and Dalton Kincaid is another option we may see here.

27. Buffalo Bills – Jack Campbell – Iowa – LB

This pick just feels right. The loss of Tremaine Edmunds leaves a hole in the middle of this defense and Jack Campbell is born and bred for a blue collar team like the Buffalo Bills. Campbell is 6’ 5” and 250 pounds and has range. He led all Power Five LBs in 2022 with a 91.7 overall grade by PFF metrics.

28. Cincinnati Bengals – Dalton Kincaid – Utah – TE

Tight end might be at the top of the Cincinnati Bengals wish list – which is longer than you would expect for a perennial contender. Kincaid is an incredible downfield threat that will stretch the seams and may be the next rendition of Travis Kelce according to some draft experts. Cincinnati could go a lot of directions here – Nolan Smith the edge defender from Georgia, Kelee Ringo at CB and OT Dawand Jones are all solid options.

29. New Orleans Saints – Nolan Smith – Georgia – Edge

Nolan Smith put on an athletic display at the NFL Combine with a 4.39 40-yard dash and was a force for an elite defense this past season when on the field. Smith is a pure speed rusher and yet plays well in the run game, despite his smaller size. When healthy last season, Smith earned an impressive 83.8 PFF grade. The Saints expect him to be a quality replacement for the departed Marcus Davenport.

30. Philadelphia Eagles – Calijah Kancey – Pittsburgh – DT

This may be a dream come true for the Philadelphia Eagles who are rumored to love Calijah Kancey. Kancey is on the small side for a defensive tackle at 6’1” and 280 pounds – but has next-level athleticism – drawing comparisons to future hall of famer Aaron Donald. The Eagles would dominate opposing offensive lines with the addition of Calijah Kancey.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Dawand Jones – Ohio State – OT

Patrick Mahomes is the heart and soul of the Kansas City Chiefs and keeping him healthy will always be the #1 priority. Dawand Jones is a behemoth at 6’8” 374 pounds and still provides impressive athleticism for his size. Jones is the size of a damn mountain and like a mountain, he is hard to move and hard to travel around. Jones allowed just four pressures last year in 419 pass-blocking snaps.

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What Would I Do Different in this 2023 NFL Mock Draft?

This feels like an exercise in futility – but it is past my bedtime and I wrote too much to change it now. I have undoubtedly missed prospects that may end up in the first round. Anton Harrison (OT), Will McDonald IV (Edge), O’Cyrus Torrence (OG), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) and Darnell Washington (TE) are all names that I would not be surprised to hear called in the first round of the draft this year. This version of my mock draft saw guys like Nolan Smith and Dalton Kincaid fall to the latter half that I did not expect and it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. I did love Bijan Robinson to Atlanta at #8 and I would love to see Jack Campbell to the Buffalo Bills at #27.

Until then – there is only one thing left to do – wait and see. And I cannot wait!

Let me know how I did in the comments!

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