3rd Annual Hops and Thoughts 2024 NFL Mock Draft

Football Field Under the Lights with Yellow and White Hops and Thoughts 2024 NFL Mock Draft Text

It is time!

I love the NFL Draft. Maybe even more than the actual games. A high-quality NFL General Manager is like a mad scientist with dangerous elements that are used in precise proportions to build a nuclear arsenal that will devastate the competition – or in the wrong proportions can blow up in their face. I love the judgment, foresight, and strategy that are employed by GMs to create a winning combination and deliver a world championship to their franchises.

NFL draft rooms have been hard at work for months scouting players, grinding tape, building draft boards, and gameplanning every conceivable outcome with the picks and rounds ahead of their own. I love the process that is the NFL Draft each year and I love to delve deeper into the strategy of the draft.

This is my annual attempt to see how close I can come to predicting the future of the 2024 NFL Draft. I am a true armchair QB that just loves the NFL Draft and as a father of two hellraisers (whom I love very much), I don’t have the time or the resources to really dive deep into players like many of the draft pundits on TV and online – but I still love the process. Without further ado – the 3rd Annual Hops and Thoughts 2024 NFL Mock Draft.


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Pre-Draft Notes for the 2024 NFL Draft

Each NFL Draft seems to have its own underlying themes that will differentiate it from the years before and after. I think this draft has the chance to be one-of-a-kind compared to any of the drafts I have really focused on in the past and to predict the future, it is important to understand the past. Here are a few of my pre-daft notes for the 2024 NFL Draft:

  • How Many Picks Can I Get Right? – This is the third installment of the Hops and Thoughts NFL Draft. The inaugural 2022 Hops and Thoughts Mock Draft ended in disaster with ZERO correct picks. The 2023 Hops and Thoughts Mock Draft saw minimal progress with FOUR correct picks – albeit maybe not in the right order due to trades – and a few teams that selected the position, if not the player I had predicted. Fingers crossed, we do a bit better this year.
  • How Many Offensive Players Get Drafted? – I think this draft will be overwhelmingly offensive – not in the same way your uncle’s jokes are – but dominated by the offensive position groups. With several QB-needy teams, a deep O-Line class, and a deep WR class, this draft may break the record of 19 offensive players selected in the first round. I think we will see up to eight offensive players drafted in the top 10 and by my estimation there may be 20 or more offensive players drafted in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
  • How Many QBs Are Drafted in the First Round? – Most draft prognosticators have at minimum four QBs being drafted in the first round – Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy. The question lies with Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. Will QB-needy teams like Denver and Las Vegas reach for these QBs that are in a lower tier according to most experts? I think there is a better than average chance that one or both fall to the second round. 
  • How Many Trades Will There Be? – This is always a question that is hard to answer. I think with there being deep classes at WR and OL, that teams who value those positions may trade back – and by the same token there will be teams with extra draft capital that trade up to get the guy that they covet. I think a few trades will be made to target one of the big three at WR and QB.

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My 2024 NFL Draft Picks

1. Chicago Bears – QB – Caleb Williams – USC

According to most – Caleb Williams is in a tier all his own at QB (although I think it is closer than most) and he is almost a stone-cold lock to go first overall to the QB-less Chicago Bears. With comparisons to Patrick Mahomes in how he can ad-lib in and out of the pocket, Williams may finally be the first Chicago Bears QB to throw for more than 30 TDs in a season. Maybe. It is Da Bears after all.

2. Washington Commanders – QB – Drake Maye – North Carolina

Here is where the indecision creeps in. Drake Maye vs Jayden Daniels? I lean towards Drake Maye. He has great size, tremendous arm talent, the college production, and the athleticism to excel at the NFL level. His decision making can be iffy at times and at times he throws his fastball when it should be a change up, but with NFL coaching, I think he can be a quality starter.

3. New England Patriots – QB – Jayden Daniels – LSU

The New England Patriots are in a prime spot to trade down with Minnesota and it has been a popular move in many mock drafts. In the end, I think QB is too important of a position to pass up and the reigning Heisman Trophy Winner is too difficult to pass up. Daniels has impressive arm talent and is a premium athlete at the position that can hurt teams with his legs as well as his arm. My primary concern is how his experience in a run-and-gun, read-based offense translates to NFL concepts.

4. Arizona Cardinals – WR – Marvin Harrison Jr. – Ohio State

Marvin Harrison Jr. has already been deemed a generational talent by many scouts and analysts – and he very well might be exactly that. With NFL bloodlines, prototypical size and athleticism, ball skills that may be unmatched, precision route running, and a high football IQ, Marvin Harrison Jr. has all the traits to be an NFL All-Pro. Harrison Jr. has performed at every level and may be the best player in this class on some boards. I am just not 100% convinced and maybe it is because he sat out all the pre-draft workouts or just doesn’t play as physical. Note: I like Odunze better myself – time will tell.

5. TRADE – Minnesota Vikings – QB – J.J. McCarthy – Michigan

Los Angeles – Pick #5 → Minnesota – Pick #11 and Pick #23 +

Minnesota uses #11 and #23 (and probably a few extra picks) to trade up to #5 with the Los Angeles Chargers and get their QB of the future in this trade. Word on the street is that the NFL likes McCarthy more than most media draft analysts and that he is the guy the Vikings want to run their offense. I think New England drafts a QB and Arizona stays at #4 to draft Marvin Harrison Jr. McCarthy didn’t get to show off much playing for the Meat-Chickens (Michigan…get it) in a run-heavy offense, but he has the arm strength, pocket awareness, and football IQ of a quality starter in the NFL. Note: Minnesota could look to trade higher with Arizona at #4 or even New England at #3.

6. New York Giants – WR – Rome Odunze – Washington

Who was the last #1 WR that the New York Giants had? Odell Beckham Jr.? It has been a minute and Darren Waller at TE will only get an offense so far in the NFL. Rome Odunze is my favorite WR in this draft and he is just a beast. He has the speed, precision route running, and ball skills that a #1 WR needs and I think he is the best 50/50 ball WR in this draft class. Odunze can beat you downfield and in the red zone and with him in New York, the G-Men may finally get to decide if Danny Dimes is actually any good.

7. Tennessee Titans – OT – Joe Alt – Notre Dame

The O-Line in Tennessee was a revolving door last season – both in terms of players on and off the field and defenders in the backfield. I watched a few Titans games this past season and in at least one, I must have seen three linemen go down. With that said – Joe Alt is the best OT in this draft class and the Tennessee Titans need to upgrade the protection for Will Levis. Joe Alt will hold the line on the left side for the next decade.

8. TRADE – Buffalo Bills – WR – Malik Nabers – LSU

Atlanta Falcons – Pick #8 → Buffalo – Pick #28 and Pick #60 and 2025 2nd Round

With the trade of Stefon Diggs, the Buffalo Bills are in desperate need of WRs and get aggressive in this trade with Atlanta to get ahead of the Bears at #9 and Jets at #10 to get Malik Nabers from LSU. Malik Nabers is an explosive athlete – with 14 TDs last year to prove it – that can stop-start on a dime and has great ball skills downfield. The cupboards are bare in Buffalo and Josh Allen can’t do it all on his own and won’t have to with Malik Nabers in the fold. Note: I am not sure how much draft capital it will take for Buffalo to move up this far – this feels like not enough.

9. Chicago Bears – Edge – Dallas Turner – Alabama

Malik Nabers was swiped right before their very eyes and Da Bears are rewarded with the best Edge Rusher in this draft class. Dallas Turner finally got to put his speed and explosiveness on display last season with 15.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks in the SEC – after Will Anderson Jr. was drafted by the Texans last year. Turner led the SEC in sacks and beats OTs with speed, explosiveness, and great hand usage that can only get better at the next level.

10. New York Jets – TE – Brock Bowers – Georgia

The J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets had a rough year last year. Aaron Rodgers lasted all of four plays and Zack “The Milf Hunter” Wilson is about as useful as a FRAGILE sticker on a UPS package. Aaron Rodgers is back and maybe higher than ever (to each their own) and has a revamped O-Line and added Mike Williams at WR. I think with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Jets still believe they have a shot to win the AFC East and Brock Bowers will fill a hole (insert X-rated joke) at TE and give Rodgers another weapon. Bonus – he has been labeled the best TE prospect in a generation.

11. TRADE – Los Angeles Chargers – OT – Olu Fashanu – Penn State

Minnesota Vikings – Pick #11 and Pick #23 + → Los Angeles – Pick #5

The Los Angeles Chargers trade back with the Vikings and add first-round draft capital to get more bites at the apple. The West Coast Harbaugh has been quoted saying that every position depends on the O-Line and Justin Herbert may agree when he is running for his life. The Chargers may have missed out on Joe Alt – but Olumuyiwa Fashanu is a pretty damn good consolation prize. A two-year starter at LT, Olu Fashanu is an A+ pass blocker that can anchor against top-tier pass rushers and is a suitable run blocker that will improve at the next level.

12. Denver Broncos – QB – Bo Nix – Oregon

This is the wait-and-see point of the draft. The Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders at #13 behind them both need a QB in a pretty bad way. Do they draft the best of the rest or wait and see what happens the rest of the way? With limited draft picks this year and a massive hole at QB – the Denver Broncos pick Bo Nix. The Oregon-Auburn QB fits what I think Sean Payton wants at QB. Bo Nix led the NCAA in Completion % and Passing TDs last year with Top 5 finishes in most QB stats categories – and while individual plays may not wow you, his total body of work should result in wins.

13. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Terrion Arnold – Alabama

I was torn at this pick. The Las Vegas Raiders need help at OL and CB. This pick could have gone either way, but with a deeper OL class, I think CB is the pick here at #13. Terrion Arnold was the man in the Alabama Secondary this past season with five interceptions and 17 passes defended. Not the most explosive CB in this draft, Terrion Arnold can fit almost any scheme, can work inside or outside, and has the coverage skills that the Raiders need in their defense. Note: I think the CB situation in Las Vegas is worse than the OL situations – so I went with CB.

14. New Orleans Saints – OT – Taliese Fuaga – Oregon State

Few things make me happier watching a football or rugby game than a big, angry Samoan lineman rag-dolling the massive man across from him on the line of scrimmage. Taliese Fuaga checks all the boxes. The New Orleans Saints need help in the trenches and Taliese Fuaga may be the help they need. Fuaga played RT at Oregon State, but has the athleticism to be a versatile piece on the O-Line for the New Orleans Saints this season.

15. Indianapolis Colts – CB – Quinyon Mitchell – Toledo

Quinyon Mitchell lives up to the Toledo Rockets name and ran a 4.33 at the NFL Combine at 6-foot and 195 pounds. The Indianapolis Colts have a few holes to fill and CB needs to be a priority. Quinyon Mitchell led the FBS in passes defended in 2022 with 25 and added five interceptions. He has the size, speed, and ball skills to succeed as a starter at the NFL level.

16. TRADE – Green Bay Packers – CB/S – Cooper DeJean – Iowa

Seattle Seahawks – Pick #16 → Green Bay – Pick #25 and Pick #58

I know, I know. This feels too obvious – and because it is what many of us as Packers fans want – it most likely will not happen. But hear me out. The top-tier CBs have started to go, many teams after #16 need CBs, the Packers have ample ammunition to move up, Gutey does not seem to be one to shy away from a trade, the Packers and Seahawks have a good working relationship, and Seattle needs IOL the most – which may be available later in the draft.

Cooper DeJean is a versatile athlete that played cornerback, safety, nickel, and hybrid at Iowa. He is an excellent athlete at 6-foot, 200-pounds that ran a 4.44 at his pro day and can be an excellent fit for the Packers and brand-new DC Jeff Hafley who loves DBs who can tackle. With all of the question marks and recent injuries in the Packers Secondary, Cooper DeJean can be a versatile playmaker for years to come.

17. TRADE – Miami Dolphins – OT – Troy Fautanu – Washington

Jacksonville Jaguars – Pick #17 and Pick #116 → Miami – Pick #21 and Pick #55 and Pick #158

Jacksonville has needs at CB and WR – and I don’t think they want to reach here. With OL-needy teams like Cincinnati and Pittsburgh between them and Jacksonville, the Miami Dolphins move up and draft Troy Fautanu (another big, angry Samoan man) who can slot in almost anywhere on the offensive line and be a plus protector. Fautanu was tabbed as a guard by many draft analysts because of “short arms” despite years of success at LT – but his combine numbers showed an elite OL athlete with 34.5-inch arms that can play any position on the line.

18. Cincinnati Bengals – DT – Byron Murphy – Texas

The Cincinnati Bengals stop the slide of DT Byron Murphy and bolster their D-Line with this pick. Murphy is an explosive and disruptive force in the interior of the defensive line and is expected to immediately contribute in Cincinnati. Byron Murphy II is a compact body that relies on leverage, quickness, and speed to make plays in the backfield against the run or the pass. Note: This was a tough call as I think Byron Murphy and Johnny Newton are similar players and the Bengals could go in either direction.

19. Los Angeles Rams – Edge – Laiatu Latu – UCLA

Maybe my favorite player in this draft class. Laiatu Latu slides to #19 due to injury concerns and makes Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams very happy campers. I may be biased because of Latu’s rugby background or because of my aforementioned affection for angry Samoans on the line – but the statistics and the testing don’t lie. Latu led the FBS in tackles for loss (21.5) and led the Pac-12 in sacks (13.0) last year with impressive stats the previous season. Add explosive testing numbers, a graduate degree in defensive hand fighting, and a never-give-up attitude to the equation and it is a recipe for success at the NFL level. Note: If not for injury concerns, Latu is the #1 Edge in this class in my humble, not-so-smart opinion.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT – Amarius Mims – Georgia

Few cities, teams, and coaches fit the Blue Collar mold like Pittsburgh – and what better place for a behemoth OT than the Steel City. Amarius Mims is 6-foot, 7-inches and 340 pounds and he ran a 5.07 at the NFL Combine. An exceptionally skilled individual at moving other large men to places they do not wish to be, Amarius Mims will fit right in with Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. With the addition of Mims, the Steelers can move last year’s first-round pick Broderick Jones to LT, improve at both positions, and Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Najee Harris can sing Hallelujah in the backfield.

21. TRADE – Jacksonville Jaguars – CB – Nate Wiggins – Clemson

Miami Dolphins – Pick #21 and Pick #55 and Pick #158 → Jacksonville – Pick #17 and Pick #116

I think with the top CBs flying off the board in the picks ahead of them at #17, the Jacksonville Jaguars are happy to trade back a bit, get more picks, and wait to see what players are left that can improve their roster. Nate Wiggins is lightning fast with a 4.28 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine and solid production at Clemson with versatile coverage skills in man or zone – but he weighed in at 6-foot, 1-inch and 173 pounds. The question is whether or not he can take the pounding of an NFL schedule. Note: Is this Nate Wiggins or Kool-Aid McKinstry?

22. TRADE – Kansas City Chiefs – WR – Brian Thomas Jr. – LSU

Philadelphia Eagles – Pick #22 → Kansas City – Pick #32 and Pick #95 and 2025 3rd Round

Kansas City is looking for a downfield threat and Brian Thomas Jr. may be the best left in the NFL Draft this year with 1,177 yards, 17.3 yards per reception, and 17 TDs for LSU last season. With Rashee Rice’s future in doubt (dumbass) and a WR room that is short on bodies, the Chiefs make the move to go up and get Brian Thomas Jr. He ran a stellar 4.33 at the NFL Combine and made his living on getting over the top of man coverage corners and making big plays downfield at LSU. Patrick Mahomes should love this addition.

23. TRADE – Los Angeles Chargers – WR – Adonai Mitchell – Texas

Minnesota Vikings – Pick #11 and Pick #23 + → Los Angeles – Pick #5

The second draft pick in their trade with the Minnesota Vikings will help fill the void in Justin Herbert’s heart left by the departure of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Adonai Mitchell is one of my favorite WRs in this draft and his highlight reel is loaded with acrobatic catches in traffic. Mitchell is an explosive athlete with a 4.34 40 time at the NFL Draft and a 11-foot, 4-inch broad jump at 6-foot, 2-inches and 205 pounds. Adonai Mitchell excels at beating CBs over the top and high pointing the ball in traffic and Justin Herbert is sure to love this pick.

24. Dallas Cowboys – OC/OG – Jackson Powers-Johnson – Oregon

We Dem Boys enter the draft after a lackluster free agency period that saw them do – checks notes – absolutely nothing to help their team. The departure of LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz have left plenty of holes to fill up front and Dak Prescott would probably appreciate some protection. Jackson Powers-Johnson is built like a brick shithouse and may be the best IOL prospect in the draft and the best pure Center. JPJ can step in and fill the void for Biadasz on day one or move to LG to allow Tyler Smith to slide to LT. No matter where he plays – Jackson Powers-Johnson will be a quality starter in Dallas.

25. TRADE – Seattle Seahawks – OG/OC – Graham Barton – Duke

Green Bay Packers – Pick #25 and Pick #58 → Seattle – Pick #16

The Seattle Seahawks have needs at OG and OC. With the trade back mock draft, the Seahawks would have a chance to draft either Jackson Powers-Johnson or Graham Barton – and Barton falls right into their laps. Graham Barton may be the most versatile O-lineman in this draft class with starts at OC and LT in a 4-year career at Duke. Graham Barton has great feet, great play strength, and a bit of an angry streak that any O-Line coach would love to have. Barton is expected to be an above-average NFL lineman at just about any IOL position. Note: I could see either Barton or Jackson Powers-Johnson in this spot depending on what happens in front of them.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Edge – Jared Verse – Florida State

Tampa Bay needs players that can get after the QB and Jared Verse is one of the best Edge Rushers in this draft. Verse wins with a combination of speed that translates to power and explosion. In four years at Albany and Florida State, Jared Verse had 32.5 sacks and 50.5 tackles for loss – which is exactly the kind of production you love to see from a first-round draft pick. Note: This feels way too late in the draft for Verse – but where do the defensive players land in this class?

27. Arizona Cardinals – DT – Johnny Newton – Illinois

With the second of their first-round draft picks, the Arizona Cardinals put their focus on the D-Line with the selection of Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton. Newton – like Byron Murphy – is a bit undersized based on NFL prototypes and makes his living in the trenches with explosive movement and a low center of gravity that translates to leverage and power. Newton recorded 7.5 sacks in 2023 and 5.5 sacks in 2022. He knows how to get into the backfield and the Cardinals will love him for it in the end. Note: I think the emphasis on offensive players in this draft and positional value drive Newton down the draft board despite his obvious talent.

28. TRADE – Atlanta Falcons – Edge – Chop Robinson – Penn State

Buffalo Bills – Pick #28 and Pick #60 and 2025 2nd Round → Atlanta – Pick #8

With their offseason moves, I think the Atlanta Falcons are closer to competing than many think and this trade gives them additional draft assets and mobility in the draft order. If the Atlanta Falcons stay at #28, I think Chop Robinson will check many of the boxes on their defense. To be 100% honest, I am not sure what to think about Get to the Choppa Robinson. His college production is underwhelming to say the least (10 total sacks), but he has an incredible athletic profile and potential that teams may choose to invest in and he had a 90.9 grade on Pro Football Focus. Note: Edge Rushers in contention here include Darius Robinson from Missouri and Marshawn Kneeland from Western Michigan.

29. Detroit Lions – CB – Kool-Aid McKinstry – Alabama

Cornerback may be the biggest need for the Detroit Lions on a pretty talented defense and Kool-Aid McKinstry could be a great fit in the defensive backfield. Kool-Aid is what you might consider sticky in coverage. He is a solid athlete that plays with speed and aggression – which Dan Campbell is sure to love – and he has great knowledge and experience that translate to a high football IQ and exceptional coverage skills.

30. Baltimore Ravens – OT – J.C. Latham – Alabama

The Baltimore Ravens O-Line took a hit in the offseason with OG Kevin Zeitler leaving in free agency and RT Morgan Moses being traded. I think the Ravens use this pick to solidify the right side of their O-Line and stop the fall of J.C. Latham. Latham is an incredible run blocker and bully on the line who was nicknamed Trench King by his teammates. He can be inconsistent pass blocking and commits more than a few penalties, which can be improved, but is also a little less of a concern when Lamar Jackson is your QB. With this pick, the Baltimore Ravens get a bully of a run blocker for Derek Henry and a quality starter that solidifies the O-Line.

31. San Francisco 49ers – OT/OG – Jordan Morgan – Arizona

The San Francisco 49ers have needs at OT and OG in this draft and Jordan Morgan may check all the boxes. Jordan Morgan played five seasons at LT for Arizona – but is projected as a Guard by many draft experts. With his athleticism, footwork, and balance, I think Jordan Morgan can serve the 49ers well as a RT, Swing Tackle, or OG at the next level. His versatility makes him an asset for the San Francisco 49ers with the #31 pick. Note: Tyler Guyton was an option at this spot, but his raw skillset and Morgan’s versatility made me go in this direction.

32. TRADE – Philadelphia Eagles – S – Tyler Nubin – Minnesota

Kansas City Chiefs – Pick #32 and Pick #95 and 2025 3rd Round → Philadelphia – Pick #22

This was a tough pick. If there is a run on CBs ahead of the Eagles like I have predicted, a move back to add more draft assets and take more of a Best Player Available approach may be the right call. Philadelphia has questions at CB and S this season and I went with a top safety prospect in this draft. Tyler Nubin is maybe the best option in a pretty average safety class with a versatile skill set that allows him to play in the box against the run and in coverage with 13 career interceptions at Minnesota. Note: Philadelphia could go in any direction here and take one of the best CBs on their board, their top Safety, or continue to trade back and get more picks. Really wanted to put Jaden Hicks from Washington St. here. Not sure why I didn’t.


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What Did I Miss in this 2024 NFL Mock Draft?

When the results come out, I will undoubtedly have missed a lot of picks – maybe all of them again. With 4,358 words done at this point, this is my NFL Mock Draft grace period where I look back and see what I may have missed.

Tyler Guyton is probably the highest rated player on most boards that I passed over, but I think with the OL, a lot of it comes down to fit and positional need, which I tried to take into account with my limited mental capacity. Either way – this is a good draft to be an O-lineman. WR is another position that I just do not know how to judge. Aside from the top three WRs, there are a lot of very good players and in the backend of the first round we could see even more of them get drafted. Will Xavier Worthy’s combine-shattering 4.21 move him into the first round? Linebacker is a weak position group this year, but I think you could still see Junior Colson, Edgerrin Cooper, or Payton Wilson sneak into the backend.

Leave me a like or a comment to let me know how I did – but please – try to be gentle.

Beer Bourbon of the Day

Bourbon: Weller Special Reserve
Distillery: Stitzel – Weller Distillery
Style: Kentucky Straight Bourbon Whiskey
Proof: 90
Purchased At: One of a few liquor stores in North Little Rock, AR

Purchased on a family vacation/bourbon hunt in Little Rock, this was a surprise to see on the shelf and at $20 – it felt like a steal – even with the purchase of a George Remus Barrel Select as a proviso. This bourbon is on the lighter side, but is incredibly smooth and has some fun notes. I got a lot of honey, light fruit notes and a bit of a cinnamon vibe.

Bottle of Weller Special Reserve and Glass with Whiskey on a Desk

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